> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://irisdocs.prescientlabs.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Risk & Assumptions

> Make uncertainty explicit so the client can distinguish observed evidence from implementation assumptions.

Every business case contains uncertainty. Strong consulting makes that uncertainty visible rather than hiding it behind a precise ROI number.

## Create an assumptions register

For each material assumption capture:

| Assumption          | Value | Source | Confidence | Owner | Validation needed |
| ------------------- | ----: | ------ | ---------- | ----- | ----------------- |
| Adoption rate       |       |        |            |       |                   |
| Time saved          |       |        |            |       |                   |
| Transaction volume  |       |        |            |       |                   |
| Implementation cost |       |        |            |       |                   |

## Separate four types of statement

**Observed fact:** directly supported by evidence.

**Estimate:** a quantified approximation based on incomplete evidence.

**Assumption:** something that must be true for the model to hold.

**Hypothesis:** a proposed explanation or outcome requiring further validation.

## Model the major risks

Consider:

* adoption risk;
* data quality;
* technical integration;
* process instability;
* security and privacy;
* implementation delay;
* vendor dependency;
* policy or governance constraints;
* benefit ownership.

## Use sensitivity analysis

Identify the two or three assumptions that change the decision most. If the project is attractive only when every assumption is optimistic, the case is weak.

## Present uncertainty clearly

A useful executive statement is:

> The base case depends most heavily on adoption and the time saved per case. At the conservative assumptions shown here, the project still remains within the client’s acceptable payback range.

Do not claim more certainty than the diagnostic evidence supports.